- The Pi Network price may crash after the mainnet launch due to revenge selling by early adopters, the historical decline of tap-to-earn tokens after airdrops, and unfavorable market timing.
- These factors could lead to an oversupply of Pi tokens, making it difficult for the coin to gain long-term stability.
The long-awaited Pi Network mainnet launch is finally approaching, with expectations set for March. This event is significant for pioneers who have been mining Pi tokens on their smartphones for years, as it marks the first real opportunity to monetize their accumulated holdings. However, while anticipation is high, several factors suggest that the Pi coin price could experience a sharp decline after the mainnet launch. Here’s why:
1. Revenge Selling by Early Pioneers
One major reason why the Pi Network price may crash post-launch is revenge selling. Many early adopters of Pi have been mining tokens for years without the ability to trade or cash them out. These pioneers have endured a prolonged wait, missing out on major crypto market rallies, including those in 2021 and subsequent years.
Adding to the frustration, Pi Network’s developers have repeatedly missed key deadlines, such as the Know Your Customer (KYC) verification process, which was delayed from November 31 to February 28. As a result, a significant number of pioneers may opt to sell off their holdings immediately after the mainnet launch, leading to a potential price drop due to an overwhelming supply in the market.
2. The Tap-to-Earn Airdrop Effect
Another risk factor for the Pi coin price is its similarity to other tap-to-earn tokens, which have historically crashed after their airdrops. Notable examples include Hamster Kombat (HMST), which plummeted by 90% from its peak, as well as DOGS and Notcoin, which suffered similar fates.
The Pi Network has attempted to differentiate itself by building its own blockchain and ecosystem, including a browser and Fireside Forum. However, the core mechanism remains the same—users accumulating tokens by tapping a button daily. Many tap-to-earn users tend to sell their tokens immediately after the airdrop to cash out, often leading to a steep decline in price. If Pi Network follows the same trajectory, it could face a similar fate.
3. Seasonality and Market Timing
Timing is another factor that could work against Pi Network’s price stability. Historical trends suggest that the third quarter of the year is generally weak for cryptocurrencies. Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin’s average return in Q2 is around 26%, while Q3 typically sees much lower gains, averaging around 6%.
If the Pi Network launch aligns with a period of market weakness, the token could struggle to gain traction, further exacerbating potential price declines. New airdropped tokens typically perform well in strong crypto markets but tend to suffer when overall sentiment is weak.
Conclusion
While the Pi Network mainnet launch is a landmark event for its community, several risks could lead to a price crash soon after. Revenge selling by early adopters, the history of tap-to-earn token declines, and unfavorable seasonality all pose threats to the coin’s value. Investors and pioneers should proceed with caution, considering these factors before making any trading decisions post-launch.
