- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has a 91% chance of joining the S&P 500 if Bitcoin stays above $95,240 by June 30.
- A sudden drop in BTC could delay its inclusion, but strong analyst support and rising odds signal investor confidence.
Michael Saylor’s rebranded company, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), is closer than ever to entering the prestigious S&P 500. But there’s a catch — it all hinges on Bitcoin staying above a critical price level through the end of June.
A 91% Shot at Inclusion — If Bitcoin Cooperates
Financial analyst Jeff Walton has given Strategy a 91% probability of joining the S&P 500 — provided Bitcoin holds above $95,240 until June 30. This isn’t just about price; it’s about earnings. For S&P eligibility, a company must report positive earnings in the last four quarters. Strategy has posted three consecutive losses, but recent accounting rule changes mean its vast Bitcoin holdings are now marked to market.
With Bitcoin trading above $106,000 at the time of reporting, Strategy’s Q2 numbers are likely to turn green, unlocking the path to index inclusion. The odds improve daily: if BTC avoids a 10% drop, Walton estimates the chance rises to 97.6% by the final day.
A Win for Bitcoin, Not Just Strategy
If successful, Strategy would become the second crypto-related company to enter the S&P 500 this year, following Coinbase’s May debut. The impact would be symbolic and practical — a major win for Bitcoin advocates seeking mainstream validation. Bitpace CRO Meryem Habibi remarked that such a move “cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class.”
This would also mark Strategy’s second major index milestone, having joined the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024.
Risks Still Loom
Despite strong probabilities, a sudden Bitcoin sell-off could derail the plan. As recently as last weekend, geopolitical tensions sent BTC briefly below $100K. If the cryptocurrency closes below $95,240 on June 30, Strategy will miss its earnings target — and its S&P ambitions will be postponed another quarter.
Strategy is widely viewed as a high-risk, high-reward proxy for Bitcoin. The company holds over 592,000 BTC — more than any other public entity. Inclusion in the S&P 500 would likely attract institutional buyers through index funds, potentially boosting its share price further.
Still, entry into the S&P also invites greater scrutiny, tighter reporting requirements, and exposure to Wall Street’s volatility — a new challenge for Saylor’s Bitcoin-centric fortress.
Wall Street is optimistic: TipRanks shows 12 out of 13 analysts rate Strategy as a Buy, with a projected 12-month upside of nearly 40%.
ALSO READ:Bitcoin Price Holds Above $106K as XRP and Ethereum Test Resistance
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