Cardano’s ADA token continued its upward trend, surging nearly 5% on August 8 to reach a daily high close to $0.34. This momentum followed a brief hiccup on August 7, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment as the cryptocurrency community closely monitors ADA’s performance.
The recent price action could be influenced by Cardano’s upcoming Chang update. Regular updates across social media platforms indicate that the hard fork’s implementation is progressing well, with 63% of nodes now supporting the update. This development has likely bolstered confidence among investors, contributing to ADA’s recent gains.
Related: Cardano’s 25% Weekly Plunge: What’s Next for ADA?
Mixed On-Chain Metrics Paint a Conflicted Picture
While ADA’s price shows positive movement, on-chain data presents a mixed scenario. Notably, accumulation trends among ADA holders reveal increased confidence in the token’s long-term potential. Large holders—those with over 1 million ADA—have seen a slight rise in the number of addresses, coupled with a steady increase in supply. This suggests a strong belief in ADA’s future, despite broader market uncertainties.
Mid-large holders, with balances exceeding 100,000 ADA, have also shown stability in the number of addresses, while consistently increasing their holdings. However, the picture becomes less clear among mid-sized holders, who possess more than 10,000 ADA. Although the overall supply in this group has risen, the number of addresses has slightly declined, indicating some level of distribution, potentially due to market volatility.
Smaller holders, with balances over 1,000 ADA, have exhibited a noticeable decline in address numbers but an increase in supply. This trend suggests that while some smaller investors may be selling, others are accumulating, adding to their positions.
Despite the bullish accumulation, Cardano’s MVRV ratio, now at -0.548, indicates that many ADA holders are still in a loss-making position, which could reduce the likelihood of significant sell-offs. Additionally, whale transactions—transfers exceeding $100,000—have decreased, pointing to reduced activity among large investors. This combination signals a cautious market sentiment, with limited sell-off risk but also a lack of strong buying signals from major players.
ADA Faces Resistance Despite Recent Rally
ADA’s price rally on August 8 has encountered significant resistance, as evidenced by the long upper wicks on recent daily candles. The token is currently trading within a bullish pattern known as the ‘falling wedge,’ but a breakout appears unlikely in the near term. For bulls to take control, ADA would need to surpass resistance near $0.35 and target the 20-day EMA resistance close to $0.375.
However, if ADA fails to initiate a rally, the token could face a drop to the support level near $0.32. A breach of this support might send ADA towards the $0.30 mark before any potential recovery.
With a neutral RSI of 36.95 on the daily chart, ADA’s price movement remains balanced, leaving the market in a state of cautious optimism. As the Chang update progresses and accumulation trends continue, ADA’s price could see further upward pressure, though the presence of bears suggests that challenges remain.
