- Bitcoin may enter a new bear market in October 2025 if the four-year cycle pattern holds true.
- Analysts predict a potential $50,000 bottom by October 2026.
- BTC is currently testing critical resistance and could retest $100,000 support before aiming for $140,000.
- Institutional demand and ETF speculation may alter historical price cycle patterns.
- Failure to defend the $100K level could signal the official end of Bitcoin’s bull run.
Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Nears a Turning Point
Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at a critical crossroads as analysts warn of a potential bear market beginning in October 2025. If the historic four-year cycle theory remains valid, BTC could see a major correction, bottoming out at around $50,000 by October 2026.
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Currently priced near $110,742, Bitcoin has already endured a 15% pullback from its all-time highs, sparking debate among traders and long-term holders.
$100K Retest vs. $140K Rally: Which Comes First?
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, argues that Bitcoin may be just weeks away from the end of its current cycle. He points to his “Repetition Fractal Cycle” model, which suggests that BTC could first dip toward $100,000 before making a possible run to $140,000.
“Who would dare to doubt that scenario?” Wedson commented, while acknowledging that ETF-driven speculation and institutional demand could disrupt traditional cycle patterns.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Still Reliable in 2025?
For over a decade, Bitcoin’s market structure has followed a relatively predictable four-year cycle. But with institutional investors entering the scene and Bitcoin now recognized as a macroasset, many question whether the old rules still apply.
Wedson highlights that if the U.S. faces a broader macroasset bear market, it could amplify Bitcoin’s decline and align with the projected fractal cycle downturn.
All Eyes on $100,000 Support
Technical traders are closely watching the $100K level, which has become the make-or-break point for Bitcoin. A break below could accelerate bearish momentum, while a rebound may set the stage for a new all-time high (ATH) above $140,000.
With October approaching, Bitcoin investors face a defining moment. Will BTC respect its historical four-year cycle and enter a prolonged bear market toward $50,000, or will institutional demand push it beyond the traditional playbook toward new highs?
For now, the battle at $100,000 support could decide Bitcoin’s next big move.