- Accumulation Zone: Glassnode reports heavy BTC buying between $108K–$116K, signaling strong long-term resilience.
- Critical Levels: A reclaim of $114K–$116K is key to restoring trader confidence in the near term.
- Profitability Trends: Short-term holder profitability rebounded to 60%, but remains below July’s peak of over 90%.
- Technical Risks: Bitcoin faces downside risk toward $93,600 if support at $100,750 fails.
- Upside Scenario: A breakout above $112K could fuel a rally toward $123,500.
Bitcoin Dip Buying Builds a Base, But Upside Still Uncertain
Bitcoin (BTC) investors have been buying heavily into the recent correction, creating a solid accumulation zone, but analysts warn that the market still carries significant downside risk.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has attracted consistent demand between $108,000 and $116,000 since mid-August, reflecting long-term confidence. This “air gap” appeared after BTC slipped from euphoric highs, and dip buyers quickly filled the void. While this signals resilience, it does not guarantee immediate upside momentum.
Currently, BTC trades within a corridor of $104,000–$116,000, a range where rallies often cool into sideways consolidation. Glassnode notes that Bitcoin exited its euphoric cost-basis band on August 19, shifting into a neutral structure that typically favors consolidation rather than breakout rallies.
Profitability Metrics Show Fragile Sentiment
Short-term holder profitability highlights the market’s fragility. During the correction, profitable supply plunged from more than 90% to 42%, before recovering to around 60%.
For conviction to return, Bitcoin must reclaim the $114,000–$116,000 zone, where most new buyers would flip profitable again. Without this recovery, sentiment risks remaining fragile.
Adding to the cooling tone, spot Bitcoin ETFs, which previously absorbed thousands of BTC daily, now see just over 500 BTC per day. Futures funding rates, which overheated in July, have normalized, reflecting a slowdown in speculative demand.
Technical Analysis: $93K Still a Risk
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart shows a falling wedge pattern, with support aligning near $100,750, close to the 200-day EMA at $104,400. A decisive breakdown from this level could expose BTC to the $93,600 Fibonacci support.
Momentum also remains weak. The RSI sits near 49, signaling neutrality, while the MACD remains negative, showing limited buying pressure. This setup leaves BTC vulnerable to retesting key supports before any sustainable rebound.
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However, if bulls manage to defend $100,750, the falling wedge could flip bullish. A breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline near $112,000 would shift short-term holder profitability into positive territory and restore confidence. The technical breakout target points toward $123,500.
A Crossroads for Bitcoin
The market sits at a crossroads. While accumulation between $108K–$116K signals long-term resilience, the lack of short-term momentum keeps BTC vulnerable to deeper corrections. Traders should watch $100,750 for support and $114K–$116K for a bullish reclaim.
If Bitcoin breaks below, risks extend to the $93K–$95K range. On the other hand, a breakout above $112K could trigger a rally toward $123,500, restoring confidence among investors.