- Bitcoin is trading near $64,336 as prediction markets sharply reduce the odds of BTC reaching $100,000 in 2026.
- Despite the cautious outlook, Anthony Scaramucci and Standard Chartered remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term path to $100,000.
Bitcoin is trading near $64,336 as traders lower their expectations for a return to $100,000 this year. However, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci remains confident that BTC will eventually reclaim the key level.
Prediction markets now show a sharp decline in the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026. The shift comes as BTC continues to trade well below its previous highs.
Polymarket Cuts Bitcoin $100K Odds
Data from Polymarket shows only an 8% chance that Bitcoin will rise above $100,000 before December 31. That is a major drop from the 92% probability recorded in January.
The odds were also around 50% in May before falling further as Bitcoin struggled to sustain higher levels. Traders are now pricing in less than a 15% chance of BTC reaching $90,000 this year. The odds of Bitcoin crossing $80,000 stand at about 31%.
Meanwhile, the market gives Bitcoin a 76% chance of falling below $60,000. Around $53.75 million has been wagered on the outcome. These bets show that many traders have become more cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term price outlook.
Scaramucci Still Expects Bitcoin to Reclaim $100K
Despite the bearish expectations, Scaramucci remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s longer-term path.
He said Bitcoin could continue to struggle for some time before eventually moving back above $100,000. He did not provide a specific timeframe for the move.
Scaramucci also pointed to Bitcoin’s current drawdown as a reason for his optimism. BTC has fallen roughly 55%, which he considers a smaller decline than previous market cycles.
According to Scaramucci, the relatively smaller drawdown could suggest that more long-term buyers are accumulating Bitcoin during the downturn.
Standard Chartered Keeps $100K 2026 Target
Scaramucci is not alone in expecting a recovery. Standard Chartered has also maintained its $100,000 year-end 2026 Bitcoin price target.
The target provides a more bullish outlook than current prediction-market odds. However, Bitcoin would need to recover strongly from current levels to reach that forecast.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at about $64,336, up 0.43% over the previous 24 hours.
For now, Bitcoin faces a clear divide between long-term bullish forecasts and increasingly cautious short-term market bets. A sustained recovery above key resistance levels could help rebuild confidence in the $100,000 target.
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