- Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $135,000 by the end of Q3 2025 and $200,000 by year-end, driven by strong ETF and corporate treasury inflows.
- The bank also cites supportive U.S. regulatory developments, including a stablecoin bill and potential changes at the Federal Reserve, as key bullish catalysts.
Standard Chartered has issued a bold forecast for Bitcoin’s performance in the second half of 2025, projecting the leading cryptocurrency to hit $135,000 by the end of Q3 and soar to $200,000 by year-end. The bank attributes its bullish outlook to strong institutional inflows and favorable U.S. policy developments.
ETF and Treasury Inflows Powering Bitcoin Growth
Bitcoin closed Q2 at an all-time high of $112,000, slightly below Standard Chartered’s earlier projection of $120,000 but still a massive jump from $85,000 at the start of the year. This rally was largely fueled by unprecedented inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury allocations.
According to Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, U.S. spot ETFs attracted $12.4 billion—or 120,000 BTC—in Q2, while treasury firms added another 125,000 BTC. Combined, this marked the second-strongest quarter ever for institutional Bitcoin buying.
Kendrick expects Q3 to break new ground, with ETF and treasury purchases likely to exceed the 245,000 BTC added in Q2. Since their launch in January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $48.7 billion in net buying—outpacing gold ETFs by a wide margin during Q2.
Policy Shifts and Market Confidence Add Fuel
Further supporting the price forecast is optimism around U.S. regulatory developments. The anticipated passage of a stablecoin bill and potential changes at the Federal Reserve—such as a new Chair announcement from President Trump—could act as additional tailwinds for Bitcoin.
“We do not view Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, so the fact BTC ETF inflows outpaced gold ETF inflows is encouraging,” Kendrick noted, highlighting investor confidence in Bitcoin’s market fundamentals rather than fear-driven buying.
Year-End Outlook: $200K Within Reach?
As the market heads into Q4, attention may turn to the Bitcoin halving cycle and whether historical post-halving corrections will repeat. However, Standard Chartered believes that unlike previous cycles, the strong and consistent ETF and treasury flows now in place will help counteract any selling pressure.
With bullish drivers aligning and institutional demand remaining strong, the bank maintains its end-of-year price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin—a potential record that could redefine crypto valuations.
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