- Cardano price surged 37% in July, supported by strong holder confidence and bullish technical indicators like EMA crossovers.
- Despite some short-term RSI divergence suggesting possible consolidation, ADA aims to break resistance near $0.86 and target $1 and beyond.
Cardano (ADA) has seen a strong surge in July, with its price rising over 37% and recently touching around $0.85. This remarkable momentum, driven by positive on-chain indicators and technical signals, suggests that ADA could be gearing up for a move toward the $1 mark and possibly beyond.
Strong Holder Confidence Reflected in Age Consumed Metric
One standout factor behind ADA’s rally is the behavior of long-term holders. The Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of older tokens, shows minimal activity since mid-June’s peak. Currently, only about 250 million ADA in older tokens have moved, a significant drop from 130 billion tokens previously. This low level indicates that strong hands are holding on tightly, signaling confidence in the ongoing uptrend. When old coins remain unmoved during price rallies, it typically points to reduced selling pressure and belief in future gains.
Santiment
Cardano MVRV Ratio Suggests More Room to Run
The 60-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is another positive signal. At around 23%, it is far from the danger zones experienced earlier this year, such as May when the ratio spiked above 130% before a sharp correction. Historically, ADA has room to climb before investors rush to take profits. For example, in April, a similar MVRV range preceded a 35% price increase. This indicates current holders have yet to realize substantial profits, reducing immediate sell pressure and supporting further upside.
Santiment
Exponential Moving Averages Confirm Uptrend Strength
Cardano’s technical outlook looks robust thanks to its recent EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crossovers. The 20-day EMA has crossed above the 50-day, 100-day, and even the 200-day EMAs within a short span, completing a rare “triple golden crossover.” Such a pattern signals strong medium-term bullish momentum and validates the strength of ADA’s price rally.
Key Resistance and Potential Challenges Ahead
ADA is now facing resistance around $0.86, which corresponds with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level of May’s highs. Breaking this level could open the door to a target near $1.07, aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. However, traders should watch out for a bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart. While ADA has been making higher highs, the RSI shows lower highs, hinting that buyer enthusiasm might be weakening temporarily. This divergence often leads to short-term consolidation or a slight pullback.
If a pullback occurs, support near $0.78 will be crucial to maintain the bullish structure. Unless long-term holders start unloading—which current Age Consumed and MVRV data do not suggest—the outlook remains positive.
In summary, Cardano’s July rally backed by strong holder confidence and bullish technicals sets the stage for a potential push toward $1, though some short-term caution is warranted due to technical signals.
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