- Ethereum ETF approval odds surged from 25% to 75% after Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas reported a potential shift in the SEC’s stance, causing Ethereum’s price to spike.
- Polymarket’s betting odds also reflected this optimism, jumping from 10% to 70%, while memecoins on the Ethereum blockchain experienced significant rallies in response.
The Surge of Optimism
In an unexpected twist, the possibility of a spot Ethereum ETF approval has created a buzz in the crypto community. On May 20, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X, significantly raising his odds for an Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%. This optimism was based on rumors that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might be shifting its stance. Almost immediately, Ethereum’s price spiked from under $3,100 to over $3,800 within 24 hours.
Balchunas is optimistic that the SEC could give at least partial approval to the ETFs by Thursday, the final date for VanEck’s ETF application. He suggests that the SEC might approve the 19b-4 filings, allowing ETFs to be listed on the exchange, while still reviewing each ETF application thoroughly. This approach would enable the SEC to initiate the process without fully committing just yet.
The Betting Markets React
While Balchunas’ insights are noteworthy, it’s also crucial to consider broader market sentiment. Polymarket, a unique crypto betting platform, allows users to wager on various event outcomes using crypto. Participants can bet “yes” or “no” on events, with payouts reflecting the perceived likelihood of each outcome. The lower the chance of an event happening, the higher the payout for betting on it.
Before Balchunas’ update, Polymarket had pegged the probability of an Ethereum ETF approval by May 31 at just 10%. Following his announcement, the odds soared to nearly 75%. Currently, they hover around 70%, indicating that bettors see a substantial chance of approval. A successful bet on approval would yield nearly 50% returns, while betting against approval could bring in over 200% returns.
Market Response and Speculation
The anticipation of an Ethereum ETF approval has also influenced the broader crypto market. Notably, several memecoins on the Ethereum blockchain saw significant rallies. For instance, Pepe (PEPE) surged by 25.7% in 24 hours, reaching an all-time high. Over the past month, PEPE has gained 131%, achieving a market capitalization of $5.81 billion, making it the third most valuable memecoin behind Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. Similarly, Mogcoin (MOG) and LADYS saw substantial gains, reflecting heightened market excitement.
However, the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs remains uncertain. The VanEck proposal, facing a May 23 deadline, is the first of its kind. Recent actions by issuers, such as Fidelity Investments and Grayscale Investments amending their applications, suggest that the market is preparing for possible approval while hedging against potential rejection.
While the market is hopeful and betting markets show strong optimism, the final decision lies with the SEC. Thursday’s deadline could mark a significant milestone for Ethereum ETFs, but only time will tell if this optimism is well-placed.
