- Ethereum gained 18.8% in August, outpacing the crypto market’s 14% rise.
- Historically, strong August gains have been followed by double-digit September losses.
- Over 96% of ETH addresses are in profit, raising chances of profit-taking pressure.
- Ethereum’s technical setup remains bullish, with potential upside toward $5,300 if resistance breaks.
- A drop below the 200-EMA ($4,212) could invalidate the bullish outlook.
Ethereum Outperforms in August, But Will It Last?
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), closed August with an 18.8% surge, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 14% rise. This outperformance was fueled by strong inflows into Ether-based ETFs compared to Bitcoin (BTC), stoking speculation of an upcoming “altseason.”
However, September may prove challenging for ETH, given its historical performance trends.
Also Read: Why Ethereum Could Outperform Bitcoin in Early 2025
Historical Patterns Suggest September Weakness
Ethereum’s past shows a clear seasonal tendency: when ETH posts strong August gains, it often stumbles in September.
- 2020: +25.3% in August → −17% in September
- 2021: +35.6% in August → −12.5% in September
- 2023: +13.4% in August → −11.3% in September
This mirrors traditional markets like the S&P 500, which has averaged −1.2% returns in September since 1928. Analysts attribute this to portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, and investor repositioning ahead of Q4 — trends that crypto often echoes.
Profit-Taking Risks Grow as 96% of ETH Addresses Sit in Profit
According to Glassnode data, over 96% of ETH addresses are in profit. This metric tracks unique wallet addresses whose average entry price is below the current market price.
When the vast majority of holders are in profit, the likelihood of profit-taking increases, which can trigger selling pressure and corrective pullbacks.
Ethereum Technicals Hint at a Potential Breakout
Despite historical headwinds, ETH’s technical setup remains bullish. On the 4-hour chart, ETH is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that often precedes sharp breakouts.
- Bullish Case: A breakout above resistance projects a move toward $5,300, more than 20% higher than current levels.
- Bearish Case: The 50-EMA ($4,464) is immediate resistance, while the 200-EMA ($4,212) is key support. A breakdown below the latter could invalidate the bullish scenario and open the door to a deeper retracement.
September Will Test ETH’s Momentum
Ethereum enters September with strong bullish momentum, but history and profit-taking risks suggest caution. Traders should watch the triangle breakout, along with the EMA levels, to gauge ETH’s next move.
Whether ETH rises toward $5,300 or faces a seasonal pullback may depend on how investors react to its profit-heavy positioning.
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