- Bitcoin dominance has fallen to 59%, its lowest level in over six months.
- Altcoin market cap has jumped 50% since July, signaling potential capital rotation.
- Coinbase defines altcoin season as 75% of top 50 altcoins outperforming BTC over 90 days.
- Institutional Ethereum demand and macroeconomic factors could fuel the next rally.
- Analysts see conditions aligning for a possible September altseason.
Coinbase Predicts September Altcoin Season as Bitcoin Dominance Hits 6-Month Low
Altcoins could be on the brink of a breakout month as Bitcoin (BTC) dominance slides and institutional interest in Ethereum (ETH) accelerates, according to a new Coinbase Institutional report.
Also Read: Coinbase Launches Regulated XRP Futures as Institutional Demand Rises
David Duong, Coinbase’s Global Head of Research, said in the firm’s August outlook that the crypto market is showing early signs of a “full-scale altcoin season” as September approaches. Bitcoin’s market share has dropped nearly 10% from over 65% in May to just under 60% in August, marking its lowest level since late January.
Defining Altcoin Season
Coinbase defines altcoin season as a period when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins by market cap outperform BTC over the preceding 90 days. While that threshold hasn’t yet been reached, altcoin indexes are trending upward.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index: 44 (up from 25 in July)
- Blockchain Center’s Index: 53 (neutral)
- CryptoRank’s Index: 50 (neutral)
Meanwhile, the total altcoin market cap has surged more than 50% since early July, indicating rising investor confidence.
Macro and Institutional Tailwinds
Duong points to a large amount of retail capital on the sidelines in money market funds. With U.S. inflation holding at 2.7% and futures markets pricing in a 92% chance of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, lower interest rates could channel fresh liquidity into higher-risk assets like altcoins.
Institutional demand for Ethereum is also playing a key role, supported by growing narratives around digital asset treasuries and stablecoins.
Historical Signals and Market Rotation
Bitcoin dominance has just recorded its first monthly bearish cross since January 2021, a technical shift that historically precedes multi-month altcoin rallies. Crypto day trader Ito Shimotsuma noted that in 2021, such a cross fueled a four-month altcoin surge. If history repeats, the market could see sustained upside until December 2025.
What’s Next?
According to Joanna Liang of venture capital firm Jsquare, three factors must align for a lasting altseason:
- Supportive macroeconomic backdrop
- Declining BTC dominance
- A strong new market narrative
With all three appearing to take shape, the market could be on the verge of a September altcoin rally, making the coming weeks critical for traders and investors alike.
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