- Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC, ongoing since 2020, may soon reach a settlement, especially with new SEC leadership showing a softer stance on crypto regulation.
- Meanwhile, the approval of an XRP ETF is expected to take longer, though major financial firms are already preparing for its potential launch.
The legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been ongoing for more than four years. With new leadership at the SEC and increased speculation about an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), many are wondering—will Ripple settle before an ETF gets approved?
Ripple’s Legal Battle: A Long Road
The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple dates back to December 2020, accusing the company of conducting an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP. Since then, Ripple has secured several partial court victories, including a ruling in August 2024 when Judge Analisa Torres ordered the company to pay a $125 million fine—significantly less than the SEC’s initial demand of $2 billion.
Despite this, the SEC appealed a key 2023 verdict, prolonging the case indefinitely. However, legal experts believe a settlement might be imminent. Notably, attorney Jeremy Hogan has suggested that Ripple’s settlement could occur before an XRP ETF receives regulatory approval.
Which Will Come First: Settlement or ETF Approval?
According to Hogan, a settlement would likely come first—not because it must, but simply because the ETF approval process is more complex and time-consuming. The approval of a spot XRP ETF in the U.S. involves extensive regulatory checks, which could take 8-12 months to finalize.
Some major financial firms, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have already expressed interest in launching an XRP ETF. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart recently estimated a 65% chance of an XRP ETF being approved before the end of 2025. He also noted that the SEC might acknowledge some of the filings as early as this week.
A Sign of Regulatory Softening?
Recent developments hint at a shift in the SEC’s approach to cryptocurrency. Earlier this week, Binance and the SEC jointly requested a 60-day pause on their legal dispute, sparking speculation that Ripple and the SEC might pursue a similar path.
Additionally, the SEC’s new chairman, Mark Uyeda, is seen as more favorable toward the crypto industry compared to his predecessor, Gary Gensler. Uyeda’s leadership could lead to a more pragmatic regulatory stance, potentially paving the way for a resolution in the Ripple case.
What’s Next?
While nothing is certain, the landscape for Ripple appears more promising than before. A settlement would provide much-needed clarity for XRP holders, and an ETF approval would further legitimize the cryptocurrency in traditional finance. As regulatory shifts continue, investors and the broader crypto community eagerly await the next move in this high-stakes legal showdown.
