- Solana price dropped due to token unlocks and falling memecoin interest despite strong network activity.
- Analysts remain positive about its long-term growth potential and institutional support.
Solana (SOL), currently trading around $165 after a recent 5% drop, faces several short-term headwinds even as its underlying network fundamentals remain impressive. Ranked as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, SOL’s price dip has caused concern among traders, yet many analysts maintain confidence in its long-term potential.
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Solana Price Trends Show Consolidation
After hitting a recent high of $185 on May 23, Solana’s price has pulled back, testing support near $142. Technical indicators suggest the token is entering a consolidation phase, fluctuating between $165 and $184. While long-term moving averages remain bullish, short-term signals like the MACD, RSI, and stochastic oscillators warn of possible overbought conditions and weakening momentum.
For bulls to regain control, Solana must break above the $184-$185 resistance zone. Failure to do so could lead to increased selling pressure targeting the critical $142 support level.
Strong Network Fundamentals Remain a Key Strength
Despite price volatility, Solana’s network fundamentals continue to shine. The blockchain has seen a 14% rise in monthly activity, with a total value locked (TVL) of $11 billion. Notably, Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEXs) recorded $94.8 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, outperforming Ethereum’s $64.8 billion in on-chain activity.
Solana also captured $48.7 million in fees during this period, significantly higher than Ethereum’s $36.9 million, underscoring its efficient fee structure and high throughput capabilities.
Solana Faces Headwinds from Token Unlocks and Memecoin Decline
Several challenges weigh on SOL’s price outlook. Between June and August, approximately 3.55 million SOL tokens—valued near $600 million—are expected to unlock, creating selling pressure. Many of these tokens originate from the FTX/Alameda estate, bought at roughly $64, limiting downside protection for early holders.
Adding to the pressure is the decline in Solana-based memecoins, which have driven much of the DEX activity. Tokens like Pudgy Penguins, FARTCOIN, POPCAT, and Official Trump have seen significant losses, which could dampen trading volume and hurt SOL’s performance.
Concerns about maximum extractable value (MEV) also persist, as validators exploit transaction ordering for profit through sandwich attacks and front-running, which compromises network fairness.
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Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Despite near-term hurdles, institutional analysts forecast a promising future for Solana. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered predicts SOL could reach $275 by late 2025 and climb to $500 by 2029, driven by broader adoption in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), social applications, and decentralized finance beyond memecoins.
Further institutional confidence is seen in SOL Strategies’ recent aggressive accumulation, including a $1 billion prospectus and purchasing over 420,000 SOL tokens, signaling sustained faith in Solana’s ecosystem.
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