SOLANA
- Solana faces selling pressure from an $80 million token unlock, causing its price to struggle near $200.
- Bearish technical signals suggest a possible pullback unless buying momentum returns soon.
Solana (SOL) has been one of the top performers in 2024, yet its recent rally toward the $200 mark has stalled. A scheduled $80 million token unlock beginning May 25 has shifted the market dynamics, casting uncertainty on SOL’s near-term price trajectory.
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Solana Token Unlock Adds Selling Pressure
The token unlock is linear, meaning tokens are gradually released daily—around $11.82 million worth each day until June 1. This slow drip contrasts with “cliff” unlocks that release large amounts at once, but the impact on supply remains significant. Although $80 million represents just 0.09% of Solana’s circulating supply, if demand doesn’t increase in tandem, the additional tokens can create selling pressure.
At the time of writing, Solana trades near $177.71, down from earlier attempts to reclaim the psychologically important $200 level. This token unlock coincides with a cooling of momentum that had been pushing SOL higher.
Technical Signals Hint at Possible Pullback
From a technical perspective, the weekly chart reveals a mixed picture. Solana’s price recently broke out from a falling wedge, which often signals a potential upward run toward $200. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has dipped slightly below zero to -0.02, signaling that distribution (selling) currently outweighs accumulation (buying).
On the daily chart, bearish signs continue. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative, and a bearish crossover has occurred between the 12-day and 26-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This suggests that bullish momentum is weakening and that a consolidation phase or even a pullback could be on the horizon.
If selling pressure intensifies, Solana’s price could fall to key support levels around $165.93 or even $142.49, marking a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement from recent highs.
What Could Spark a Recovery?
On the flip side, if buying interest returns and the EMA crossover flips bullish again, SOL could break above resistance at $195.12. Such a move might propel Solana toward $218.65, near the 0.618 Fibonacci golden ratio. In a strong bullish scenario, the token might even push to $252.15.
Until then, investors should watch supply changes closely and monitor demand trends, as the ongoing token unlock may keep SOL from quickly reclaiming its earlier gains.
Solana’s path to $200 remains uncertain for now, with supply unlocking and bearish technical signals limiting its upside. However, if demand picks up and technical momentum shifts, a strong recovery could still be possible in the coming weeks.
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