- Bitcoin faces strong bearish signals, including a potential 50% correction toward $64,000, which could derail its $150,000 year-end target.
- However, some analysts remain hopeful, citing bullish patterns and onchain indicators that may still drive Bitcoin toward $150,000 or higher by late 2025.
Bitcoin’s recent surge toward $112,000 sparked fresh optimism about a possible rally to $150,000 by the end of 2025. However, technical signals and expert warnings suggest the journey may be tougher than some expect. While a few bullish setups remain, notable patterns hint at a looming correction that could derail Bitcoin’s ambitious price target.
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Bitcoin Bearish Warning Signs Flash on the Charts
A close look at Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a concerning signal: a bearish divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This pattern, seen before at the 2021 market peak, indicates weakening upward momentum despite price highs. Historically, such divergence preceded a steep correction—over 60% in 2021—dropping Bitcoin close to its 200-week moving average.
Currently, the same structure points to a potential pullback toward $64,000, a drop of about 50% from recent highs. If confirmed, this correction would seriously challenge the widely discussed $150,000 year-end target.
Further adding to bearish pressure is an inverse cup-and-handle pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart. The neckline near $100,800 acts as key support, and a break below this level could push prices down toward the $91,000 zone—near Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). The RSI also sits at 52, edging toward the critical 50 mark, signaling that downside momentum may be building.
Expert Insights and the Parabolic Trendline Test
Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin must reclaim its parabolic trendline soon to keep the bull cycle alive. Failure to do so might signal the end of this rally phase and trigger a typical 50–60% correction, similar to past market tops.
Brandt’s analysis highlights a rising wedge pattern and suggests that Bitcoin’s fate could hinge on the next few months. Holding above crucial moving averages is essential for the cryptocurrency to push toward $125,000–$150,000 by late 2025.
Bulls Hold on to Gold’s Historic Breakout as Hope
Despite these technical hurdles, some analysts remain optimistic. They compare Bitcoin’s current setup to gold’s explosive breakout in the early 2000s, suggesting BTC could follow a similar upward trajectory.
Analyst Tony Severino points to a possible bull flag formation, indicating a strong price surge might still be underway. From an onchain viewpoint, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes BTC is nearing a “start” rally zone based on historical cycle trends. If key ratios like NUPL/MVRV cross certain thresholds, a fresh bullish impulse could ignite, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $150,000 to $175,000, echoing previous rally peaks in 2017 and 2021.
A Cautious Outlook on Bitcoin Rally
Bitcoin’s climb toward $150,000 by year-end is far from guaranteed. The mix of bearish technical signals and the necessity to reclaim vital trendlines paint a cautious picture. While echoes of gold’s historic rise and onchain indicators provide some bullish fuel, traders should prepare for possible volatility and significant pullbacks on the road ahead. The next few weeks will be critical in deciding whether Bitcoin can overcome these hurdles or if a major correction awaits.
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