- XRP could fall toward $1 if it fails to reclaim the $1.33 level, according to analyst ChartNerd.
- A sustained recovery above $1.33 could open the way toward $1.50 and higher targets.
XRP could fall toward $1 before staging its next major rally, as it struggles to regain key weekly support levels. Analyst ChartNerd warns that XRP needs to reclaim $1.33 and hold above it to avoid a deeper pullback, with its weekly chart showing signs of continued weakness.
$XRP faces a pivotal weekly test after 9 weeks of rejection at the 50 EMA and last week’s loss of the 20 EMA. Reclaiming $1.33/$1.50 would invalidate the pullback scenario and reopen the path toward a fresh breakout attempt. Until then, the lower $1 range remains in the cards 👇🏼 https://t.co/xOH4KhWGMG
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) October 20, 2026
XRP Price Faces Risk Below $1.33
XRP traded at around $1.33 on October 22, 2026, after gaining 2% over the previous 24 hours. However, XRP remained down nearly 3% over the past week and 6% over the past month. XRP has also lost 45% of its value over the past year and trades 63% below its all-time high of $3.65.
The weekly chart shows why analysts remain cautious. XRP recently closed below its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), a technical indicator used to track longer-term price trends. According to ChartNerd, continued weekly closes below this level could expose XRP to another decline toward $1.
XRP previously rebounded from a low near $0.98 to $1.70, gaining roughly 70% before encountering resistance around its 50-week EMA near $1.50. That resistance has held for approximately nine to ten weeks, while XRP has since pulled back about 25%.
The $1.30 area remains an important level for buyers. A sustained recovery above $1.33 could strengthen the bullish outlook and open the way toward $1.50. Beyond that level, XRP could face another test around $1.55, where a concentration of leveraged positions may influence price movements.
If buyers push XRP above this resistance zone, the next potential targets would be $1.80 and $2. However, failure to recover $1.33 could leave the cryptocurrency vulnerable to another decline toward $1.
XRP Gaussian Channel Points to a Possible $1 Retest
The monthly Gaussian Channel also supports the possibility of a deeper XRP correction. This technical indicator uses bands to track long-term price trends and identify potential support and resistance areas.
In previous market cycles, XRP fell from the upper band toward the middle band after reaching a cycle peak. The middle band currently sits near $0.98, while the upper band is around $1.54.
XRP has struggled to break above the upper band for three months and has yet to revisit the middle band during the current cycle. A move toward $1 would bring the price closer to this longer-term technical level.
ChartNerd also pointed to XRP’s price action in 2022 as a possible comparison. During that period, XRP rebounded by roughly 90% toward its 50-week EMA before falling back toward its previous lows shortly after losing the 20-week EMA.
I would hate to have to say i told you so, but there will be chaos across the board if this $XRP bars pattern replicating the 2022 cycle low unfolds back towards $1.00. Not for us though, we already highlighted this potential back in August after rejecting the 50 week EMA 🤝 https://t.co/Un6tWInlKm
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) October 21, 2026
The analyst sees similarities between the two setups but acknowledged that the outcome remains uncertain. Previous downside targets between $0.90 and $0.70 did not materialize, highlighting the difficulty of predicting XRP’s next move from technical patterns alone.
XRP Exchange Data Shows Changing Investor Activity
Exchange data provides another perspective on XRP’s current market conditions. The share of Binance outflows involving transfers of less than 10,000 XRP increased from 3% on September 30 to 19.7% on October 20, reaching its highest level since October 2024.
At the same time, reserves across three major exchanges increased by 120 million XRP. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds also recorded zero net flows on Monday.
These figures point to changes in exchange activity, but they do not establish whether XRP is about to recover or face further selling pressure. Increased exchange reserves can add to concerns about potential selling, while smaller withdrawals may reflect different investor behavior.
For now, the $1.33 level remains central to XRP’s short-term outlook. A sustained recovery above it could bring $1.50 and higher resistance levels back into focus. If XRP continues to close below its 20-week EMA, however, a retest of the $1 region remains a possibility before any stronger recovery takes shape.
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