XRP has closed every month since November 2024 above the psychologically important $1.90 level, despite broader crypto volatility. The pair briefly spiked from $0.50 to $3.60 last October and has since carved a low-volatility range between $1.90 and $2.60.
Why it matters: Long consolidation over strong support often precedes explosive moves as order books reload with buyer interest.
Also Read: Will XRP Reach $100 by 2025? Here’s Why It’s Possible
Elliott-Wave Map: Wave (iii) Targets $8–$12; Wave (v) $30–$50
Crypto technician CrediBULL Crypto classifies the sideways range as Wave (ii) of a larger five-wave Elliott structure. If the fractal plays out, Wave (iii) could catapult XRP to $8–$12, with a final Wave (v) blow-off stretching to ~$32 by 2026—roughly 1,500 % above current prices.
Institutional Catalysts Stack Up
1. Ripple’s U.S. Banking Charter Bid
On July 2 2025, Ripple confirmed applications for a national bank charter and a Federal Reserve master account, a first for any major crypto firm. Approval would grant direct access to Fed payment rails (including FedNow) and FDIC-insured accounts, significantly lowering settlement friction for XRP-powered payment flows.
2. Spot XRP ETF Could Attract $20–$50 B
Software engineer and long-time XRP advocate Vincent Van Code argues that a U.S. spot ETF could unlock $20–$50 billion in institutional AUM, mirroring Bitcoin’s 2024 surge after ETF listings.
3. Robinhood Micro Futures Lower the Bar for Retail
Trading platform Robinhood added micro XRP futures on June 28, letting users control 2,500 XRP per contract with minimal margin—broadening derivatives access ahead of any spot-market fireworks.
On-Chain Activity Signals Network Demand
The XRPL pushed through 1.6 million transactions in a single day last week, moving more than $500 million across wallets. Weekly payment transactions have soared 430% since 2023, underscoring rising real-world usage.
Price Roadmap: What to Watch Next
| Level | Significance | Upside Target if Broken |
|---|---|---|
| $2.50 | Top of 8-month range | Opens path to $3.60 |
| $3.60 | 2024 swing high | Clears runway to $8–$12 (Wave iii) |
| $12.00 | Wave iii projection | Wave v extension to $30–$50 |
Conversely, sustained closes below $1.90 would invalidate the bullish count and expose $1.50 support.
Frequently Asked Questions
If Elliott-Wave projections and institutional catalysts converge, analysts see the $30–$50 zone materializing in late 2026 or earlier in an aggressive bull cycle.
The lawsuit is in its final stage; Ripple dropped its cross-appeal in June, signaling a push for settlement. A clear legal finish line would likely be viewed as bullish but is not a strict prerequisite for charter approval or ETF progress.
Loss of the charter bid would remove a major narrative tailwind, but XRP would still benefit from global payment adoption and any ETF flows. Price targets would likely be revised downward.
Loss of the charter bid would remove a major narrative tailwind, but XRP would still benefit from global payment adoption and any ETF flows. Price targets would likely be revised downward.
Micro contracts reduce capital requirements, but they are still leveraged derivatives—traders can lose more than their initial margin in extreme volatility.
