- Bitwise predicts Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036 as institutional adoption and store-of-value demand grow.
- The forecast assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of the projected gold-and-Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, according to a new long-term forecast from Bitwise Asset Management. The firm expects institutional investment, growing demand for stores of value and Bitcoin’s limited supply to drive its price higher over the next decade.
The revised forecast raises Bitwise’s previous target of $1.3 million by 2035. However, reaching the new target would require Bitcoin to gain a much larger share of the global store-of-value market and attract substantial investment from institutions, corporations and national governments.
Bitwise Raises Its Bitcoin Price Target to $1.6 Million
Bitwise published its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 28, outlining its expectations for Bitcoin and other major asset classes over the next decade.
The firm’s base-case forecast puts Bitcoin at $1,599,766 by 2036, implying annualized returns of 34.3% over the model’s 10-year period. This is an increase of approximately 23% from its previous $1.3 million target for 2035.
Bitwise also outlined alternative scenarios to account for different market conditions. Its bear case places Bitcoin at $130,686, while the bull case projects a price of $3,667,911.
These figures show how widely Bitcoin’s potential value could vary depending on adoption rates, investment demand and broader market conditions.
Growing Demand for Bitcoin as a Store of Value
A major part of Bitwise’s forecast depends on Bitcoin capturing a larger share of the market for assets used to preserve wealth.
The firm projects that the combined market for gold and Bitcoin as stores of value will reach $109.8 trillion by 2036. Under its base-case assumptions, Bitcoin would account for 25% of that market.
That would represent a substantial expansion in Bitcoin’s role as an alternative to traditional stores of wealth, particularly gold.
Bitwise’s model also considers demand from institutional portfolios, emerging-market currencies, offshore wealth, national reserves, US corporate treasuries and remittances. These markets could provide additional sources of demand beyond individual investors.
The forecast assumes Bitcoin will make relatively small gains in some of these areas. For example, it models a 1% allocation from institutional investors and 2.5% penetration of both national treasury reserves and US corporate treasuries.
Together, these assumptions support the firm’s view that Bitcoin could attract more capital as investors seek alternatives to traditional financial assets.
Institutional Investment Could Drive Bitcoin Higher
Institutional adoption is another important factor behind Bitwise’s bullish Bitcoin price prediction.
The firm estimates that institutional investors could allocate between 1% and 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the next decade. Depending on the allocation, this could generate between $1.5 trillion and $7 trillion in potential demand.
That amount would be significant compared with the value of newly mined Bitcoin. Bitwise estimates annual Bitcoin production at roughly $14 billion using its reference valuation.
The difference highlights why institutional investment could become an important driver of Bitcoin’s price. If demand increases while the supply of new coins remains limited, buyers may have to compete more aggressively for available Bitcoin.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also pointed to regulatory progress, institutional adoption and growing interest in hard assets such as gold as reasons for the firm’s more optimistic outlook.
However, the projected demand is not guaranteed. Actual investment allocations will depend on market conditions, regulations and how institutions assess Bitcoin’s risks.
Bitcoin Could Become Less Dependent on Its Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin has historically experienced major price movements around its halving events, which reduce the rate at which new coins enter circulation. These events have contributed to the market’s widely followed four-year cycle.
Bitwise expects this pattern to weaken as institutional investors become a larger part of the market. Larger and more diverse sources of capital could change how Bitcoin responds to supply changes and market sentiment. However, the firm does not expect volatility to disappear.
Its model projects average annual volatility of 27.8% and an average correlation of 0.43 with US stocks over the next decade. Bitwise also identifies several risks to its long-term outlook, including advances in quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical breakthroughs and potential regulatory reversals.
These risks could affect investor confidence and Bitcoin’s long-term value, even if adoption continues to grow.
Bitcoin Market Shows Signs of Accumulation
While Bitwise’s forecast focuses on the next decade, recent market conditions offer a more immediate view of investor behavior.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, described Bitcoin’s recent trading as a possible accumulation period, although he warned that market participants appeared somewhat complacent.
Ko noted that funding rates remained positive and open interest had partially recovered from its September lows. He also pointed to Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-week moving average and holding above that level for several weeks as an encouraging sign.
However, Bitcoin struggled to maintain its recovery. After briefly moving toward $84,000, the price fell below $80,000, reflecting continued uncertainty in the market.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $300 million in net inflows during the period discussed by Ko, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows.
These developments suggest that some investors were returning to Bitcoin, although the price weakness showed that buying demand had not removed the pressure on the market.
Ko also highlighted broader economic conditions and uncertainty surrounding technology companies’ heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure as factors investors were watching.
Can Bitcoin Reach $1.6 Million by 2036?
Bitwise’s latest forecast places Bitcoin among the assets it expects to deliver strong long-term returns. Its projection rests on several assumptions, including greater institutional participation, a larger store-of-value market and continued demand for an asset with a capped supply of 21 million coins.
Other investment firms have published similarly ambitious forecasts, although their estimates differ because they use different adoption rates, supply assumptions and valuation methods.
For Bitcoin to reach $1.6 million, demand would need to expand substantially over the next decade. Institutional allocations, corporate holdings and interest from national governments could help support that growth, but none of these outcomes is certain.
Bitcoin also faces risks from regulatory changes, technological developments and shifts in investor appetite. Sharp price declines could continue even if its long-term adoption increases.
Bitwise’s $1.6 million Bitcoin target hinges on institutional investment and Bitcoin capturing a larger share of the global store-of-value market by 2036. However, the forecast also depends on whether demand from corporations, governments and long-term investors grows enough to support that valuation.
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