• Cardano’s upcoming Chang hard fork aims to shift control to the community, potentially reviving ADA’s price after a significant drop in 2024.
  • This transition to a governance token could spark renewed investor interest, despite competitive pressures and technical challenges.

A New Dawn for Cardano?

Cardano (ADA) has left many of its supporters disheartened in 2024, with its value plummeting by 40% year-to-date, starkly contrasting the overall crypto market’s 30% rally. However, the upcoming Chang hard fork is generating significant buzz and is seen as a potential catalyst for a bullish revival.

What is the Chang Hard Fork?

The Chang hard fork is set to revolutionize Cardano’s ownership structure by transferring control from the Cardano Foundation, EMURGO, and Input-Output Global (Hoskinson’s blockchain development company) to the community. This transition will transform ADA into a governance token, empowering its holders to vote on blockchain changes.

In a recent address on July 7, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson announced that the upgraded node, tagged “node 9.0,” is ready for release and will be rolled out by July 15. Since this announcement, ADA’s price has surged over 14% to reach $0.363 on July 9, indicating rising speculation and optimism among investors.

ADA vs. Competitors

Despite the recent surge, ADA faces stiff competition from other cryptocurrencies like Toncoin (TON) and Dogecoin (DOGE). While ADA has seen a significant dip, TON has experienced a 75% increase in market dominance and a 190% rise in holders. This competitive pressure highlights the challenges ADA faces in regaining its footing.

Blockchain analytics platform IntoTheBlock draws parallels between the current speculation and the buzz surrounding ADA’s previous hard fork, “Mary,” in March 2021, which saw ADA’s price surge 130%.

Technical Analysis: Will ADA Break Out?

From a technical standpoint, ADA is showing signs of a potential bullish breakout. The cryptocurrency is currently forming a falling wedge pattern, a bullish reversal pattern characterized by two descending, converging trendlines. If ADA breaks above the upper trendline, it could see a price increase of 5-20% in the coming days or weeks.

As of July 9, ADA is attempting to close above its wedge’s upper trendline, eyeing a run-up toward $0.46. However, low trading volumes pose a risk of a pullback toward the lower trendline. If ADA successfully breaks above the upper trendline, particularly at the wedge’s apex where the trendlines converge, its price target would be around $0.40, a modest 5.81% increase from its current level.

The Chang hard fork represents a significant shift for Cardano, potentially boosting ADA’s price and transforming its ownership structure. While the path to recovery is fraught with challenges, including stiff competition and technical hurdles, the hard fork could provide the momentum needed for ADA to regain some of its lost ground in the crypto market. Investors will be watching closely as Cardano navigates this critical juncture.