- The CLARITY Act has just a 10% chance of passing before the November midterms.
- A key Senate vote is scheduled for Sept. 15.
The CLARITY Act is facing a tougher path to becoming law before the November midterm elections. Miller Whitehouse-Levine, CEO of the Solana Policy Institute, now estimates the bill has just a 10% chance of passing before the elections.
His assessment comes as the Senate prepares for a Sept. 15 procedural vote that could determine whether lawmakers move forward with the crypto market structure bill. Prediction markets remain somewhat more optimistic, with Polymarket pricing the chances of passage by the end of 2026 at about 20%.
CLARITY Act Faces Key Senate Vote
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 before lawmakers left Washington for the August recess. The Senate is scheduled to resume normal business on Sept. 14. The cloture vote is expected at 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15.
If approved, the vote would open the door to Senate debate and amendments. Senators would still need to agree on the final legislation. The Senate also needs 60 votes to overcome the cloture threshold. Any changes made by senators could require the House to consider the bill again before it reaches the president.
Prediction Markets Give Higher Odds
Prediction markets remain more optimistic about the CLARITY Act. Polymarket currently puts the chance of the bill becoming law in 2026 at about 20%. Its market has recorded more than $7.2 million in trading volume.
Kalshi traders placed the odds near 23% on Aug. 18. That figure has fallen sharply from around 50% less than a month ago.
The figures are not directly comparable with Whitehouse-Levine’s 10% estimate. His assessment focuses on passage before the November midterms.
Polymarket and Kalshi allow for the bill to become law later in 2026. A post-election congressional session could therefore give the legislation more time.
Crypto Policy Disputes Add Pressure
Several unresolved issues continue to complicate negotiations around the CLARITY Act.
Banks have raised concerns about provisions involving stablecoin rewards. Other financial firms are focused on rules that could affect their existing businesses.
Democratic lawmakers have also pushed for ethics restrictions involving government officials and digital assets. Lawmakers still need to address questions around SEC and CFTC oversight, decentralized finance and customer protection.
Whitehouse-Levine said he remains hopeful but realistic about the bill’s chances. He warned that failure would put more than a year of congressional work at risk.
SOLANA $SOL POLICY INSTITUTE CEO MILLER WHITEHOUSE-LEVINE SAYS CLARITY ACT IS IN "AUGUST RECESS PURGATORY," GIVES IT 10% ODDS OF PASSING BEFORE MIDTERMS
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) August 18, 2026
SEC Moves Ahead With Crypto Rules
The SEC has also taken action while Congress continues debating market structure legislation.
On Aug. 18, the agency proposed new rules covering certain crypto asset investment contracts. The proposal includes exemptions for offerings of up to $5 million over four years and up to $75 million during a 12-month period.
However, the SEC proposal does not replace the broader CLARITY Act. Federal legislation would provide a wider framework for digital asset markets.
The Sept. 15 cloture vote will offer the next major test for the CLARITY Act. Whether lawmakers can reach a bipartisan agreement could determine if the bill advances before the November elections.
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