- Solana DEX volume surged to a one-year high of 138.4 billion while SOL price struggles near 87 after a 55 percent drop.
- Short-term holders may sell on small gains, but long-term buyers continue accumulating.
Solana (SOL) price trades near $87 after a 55% drop from January highs, even as the Solana decentralized exchange ecosystem posts the highest weekly volume in a year. The surge in on-chain activity highlights a disconnect between usage and price, raising questions about SOL’s next move.
Solana DEX Activity Hits One-Year High
Solana’s DEX volume surged 103% to $138.4 billion in the week ending March 16, reaching its highest level in a year. Pumpswap alone accounted for $101.2 billion of the total, followed by Meteora at $21.3 billion and Raydium at $4.7 billion.
The February trough at $68.1 billion coincided with SOL’s steepest losses, when the token fell from $149 to roughly $67. The rebound in trading activity shows renewed interest in Solana’s ecosystem despite the sluggish price performance.
Ascending Channel Shows Recovery, Not Reversal
Since early February, SOL has been trading within an ascending channel, currently near $87. While this pattern suggests a gradual recovery, it does not confirm a trend reversal after a 55% crash.
The $97 swing high has repeatedly acted as resistance. Until SOL closes above this level daily, the current rise is considered corrective rather than a full reversal. A break below the channel’s lower trendline at $85 could push SOL toward $80 and possibly the year-to-date low of $67.
Short-Term Holders Could Trigger Selling
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders rose from -0.95 at February lows to -0.37 on March 22. Though losses are shrinking, short-term holders are still underwater. Relief rallies could prompt them to sell at breakeven, potentially pressuring the price during small upward moves.
Long-Term Buyers Show Strength
Exchange net position changes reveal that SOL is being withdrawn from exchanges at a rising rate. Around 2.18 million SOL left exchanges between March 17 and March 22, a 340% increase in just five days. This behavior typically signals accumulation, suggesting long-term buyers are confident despite short-term volatility.
Key Price Levels for Solana
SOL currently trades near $87:
- Support: $85 (lower channel trendline), $80, $67 (YTD low)
- Resistance: $97 (swing high), $100 (psychological barrier), $108 (upper channel trendline), $115–$134 (Fibonacci extensions)
Holding above $85 is crucial for maintaining the recovery channel. Breaking below could reopen the path to the $67 low, while a sustained move above $97 could shift bullish sentiment significantly.
Solana’s DEX activity is surging, but SOL’s price remains under pressure. Short-term sellers could trigger relief selling, while long-term holders continue accumulating. The next weeks will determine whether the ascending channel supports a full recovery or a deeper slide.
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