- Stellar (XLM) has dropped below its key 10-day moving average, indicating short-term weakness and increased selling pressure.
- While some analysts see potential for significant gains if key resistance levels are broken, bearish signals suggest caution in the near term.
Stellar (XLM) has recently slipped below its crucial 10-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling a possible short-term downturn following a strong rally earlier this month. This technical breakdown has traders and analysts closely watching the asset’s next moves amid signs of shifting momentum.
Stellar (XLM) Breaks Short-Term Support After July Rally
After a solid climb from under $0.30 to over $0.50 in July, Stellar’s price dipped sharply, breaking below the 10-day SMA that had acted as a critical support level. At the time of writing, XLM trades around $0.43, down nearly 6% on the day and about 8% over the past week.
Stellar $XLM just lost the 10-day SMA as support: bullish above, bearish below! pic.twitter.com/f3wkMHZhqd
— Ali (@ali_charts) July 29, 2025
This break came with increased selling volume, highlighting a shift in short-term momentum from buyers to sellers. The falling price and negative signals from technical indicators have put XLM on the radar of traders anticipating possible weakness ahead.
Historical Patterns Suggest Potential for Big Gains or Continued Range
Some analysts look to Stellar’s earlier cycles for clues. Trader Javon Marks noted that current price patterns resemble those from 2015 to 2018, a period marked by a prolonged downtrend, a wedge formation, and a breakout followed by a strong rally.
Based on $XLM (Stellar)'s performance in the 2015-2018 bull cycle and the similarities in this one, prices can be preparing here for another >80% upside to and above the $0.79783 level!
Above that level and XLM could push another +900% to a more than $8.00 price point!
That's a… pic.twitter.com/FC0igkrhi0
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) July 29, 2025
Marks sees potential for XLM to rebound and achieve an 80% increase toward the $0.80 mark, with an optimistic target as high as $8.00 — a tenfold gain from today’s levels if it recaptures momentum.
Conversely, veteran trader Peter Brandt urges caution, emphasizing that XLM must hold above its April low near $0.22 and close firmly above $1.00 to escape its current range-bound behavior. Failure to meet these key levels could mean continued sideways trading without major upward moves.
Bears Gain Control as Selling Pressure Rises on Stellar (XLM)
The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator has turned negative, reflecting a clear transition from buyer dominance to seller control. After strong bullish activity earlier in July, red bars now signal that selling pressure is mounting. Continued negative readings on the BBP could suggest that downward pressure will persist in the near term.
What Comes Next for Stellar?
The price zone between $0.42 and $0.45 will be critical. If buyers can reclaim the $0.45 level with strong volume, a bounce back to $0.50 is plausible. However, failure to defend this support may open the door for further declines.
Stellar’s near-term outlook hinges on stabilizing above these short-term technical lines before any meaningful rally can resume. Traders should watch key price points closely as XLM navigates this delicate phase.
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