- Bitcoin faces historic sales from long-term holders, shifting ownership to newer investors.
- This creates a fragile market with prices ranging between $81,100 and $98,400 and limited upside.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders unload their positions, marking the “largest release” of dormant coins in history. According to CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi, coins that remained unmoved for over two years are now being sold at volumes surpassing those of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.
Largest Long-Term Bitcoin Supply Release in History
“Bitcoin is not only undergoing a price cycle, but potentially a transition in who holds it and why—and long-term holder supply behavior is one of the clearest on-chain signals of that shift.” – By @KriptoMevsimi pic.twitter.com/LfXE7tImtC
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 22, 2026
Historically, such activation of dormant coins often triggers sharp price movements, but the current trend involves older coins and a more deliberate capital rotation. Early investors, who relied on scarcity and self-custody, are passing their holdings to new participants influenced by macroeconomics, liquidity, and price.
Fragile Market Balance and Selling Pressure
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s on-chain structure is fragile, with prices around key cost levels and long-term accumulation signals still absent. Support sits at $81,100, the True Market Mean Price, while resistance rests around $98,400, reflecting the average purchase price of short-term holders. Recent buyers continue to create selling pressure, limiting upside potential. Short-term rallies often present opportunities to exit positions, resembling the consolidation phase at the start of 2022, when repeated failures to surpass break-even levels slowed growth.
Who is Selling and Why
The current selling pressure mainly comes from participants who bought Bitcoin 3–6 months ago and are realizing losses as prices approach their entry points above $110,000. A significant cluster of coins above $100,000, accumulated by long-term holders, adds further resistance. Trader activity is also rising, with minimal profits realized quickly, reflecting a preference for fast exits over holding for extended trends.
Spot and Derivatives Market Trends
Spot markets are showing modest improvement, with Binance reporting renewed buying and Coinbase activity stabilizing. However, corporate treasuries remain passive, providing little systemic support. The derivatives market, described by Glassnode as a “ghost town,” shows compressed futures volumes, low leverage usage, and near-term risk pricing in options, leaving long-term expectations stable. Dealer positioning indicates heightened volatility below $90,000, while growth attempts above this level face natural dampening from long gamma positions.
A New Era of Ownership
For the first time, “new” whales in realized Bitcoin capitalization have surpassed long-term holders, signaling a historic shift in the composition of market participants. While Bitcoin appears to be finding a bottom, this stability comes from a pause in sales rather than fresh capital inflows. Analysts suggest that a significant market catalyst will be needed to reignite interest from major players and set the stage for the next phase.
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