- XRP shows signs of forming a local bottom as long-term holders accumulate and selling pressure eases.
- A breakout from the descending wedge could push the price toward $2.03–$2.10 if confirmation holds.
XRP has remained in a downtrend this month, falling to a fresh monthly low. However, on-chain and technical indicators suggest selling pressure is weakening, a pattern that often precedes short-term rebounds.
Long-Term Holders Signal Quiet Confidence
On-chain data highlights a notable shift in holder behavior. XRP’s Liveliness metric has fallen sharply over the past six weeks and now sits at a two-month low. This indicator tracks whether coins are being spent or held. A declining reading points to accumulation instead of distribution.
Such behavior from long-term holders often carries weight during corrective phases. When experienced investors hold rather than sell, circulating supply tightens and sell-side pressure eases. For XRP, this trend suggests confidence remains intact despite recent weakness, improving the odds of a recovery once market conditions stabilize.
Oversold Conditions Hint at a Local Bottom
Technical indicators support the idea that XRP may have reached a near-term floor. The Relative Strength Index recently dipped below the 30 level, placing the asset in oversold territory. This zone often reflects capitulation among short-term traders rather than the start of a deeper breakdown.
Importantly, the RSI has since bounced back above that threshold. This shift suggests that aggressive selling has slowed, allowing prices to stabilize. Assets that exit oversold conditions frequently attempt short recoveries, especially when backed by steady accumulation from long-term holders.
Descending Wedge Points to Upside Potential
XRP’s price action has formed a descending wedge since the start of the month. This structure is widely viewed as constructive, as it reflects a gradual loss of downside pressure. Breakouts from such patterns tend to occur when sellers lose control and buyers regain influence.
Based on the wedge’s height, the projected upside move stands near 11.7%. With XRP trading around $1.87, this places a technical target close to $2.10. A more cautious view looks to $2.03 as a key confirmation level. A clean move above that zone would validate the breakout and signal improving price strength.
Key Levels to Watch on the Downside
The bullish case weakens if XRP fails to exit the wedge. Persistent selling could pull the price toward $1.79. A deeper slide may extend losses to $1.75, which would invalidate the reversal setup and reinforce the broader downtrend.
For now, XRP sits at a critical crossroads, with accumulation and technical signals tilting the balance toward a potential relief rally.
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