- Bitcoin selling pressure is easing as short-term holder profits fall.
- However, ETF outflows and Fed uncertainty could limit recovery.
Bitcoin may be getting closer to a recovery as profit-taking among short-term holders slows. However, heavy Bitcoin ETF outflows and resistance near $87,500 continue to weigh on the market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest rate decision.
Bitcoin Selling Pressure Eases as Short-Term Holder Profits Fall
Bitcoin’s selling pressure has eased as fewer short-term holders remain in profit, according to Glassnode’s October 27 market update. The share of Bitcoin held by these investors at a profit has fallen to around 70%, down from nearly 100% in late September.
Short-term holders are investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Their activity often provides insight into market sentiment because recent buyers may sell quickly when prices rise or fall sharply.
When almost all short-term holders were in profit in September, many had an incentive to sell and secure their gains. The recent decline in profitability has reduced that incentive, potentially easing one source of selling pressure.
Glassnode said the current market conditions offer a better entry point than a month ago for investors who expect Bitcoin’s uptrend to continue. However, the decline in short-term holder profits does not guarantee an immediate price recovery.
Bitcoin Profit-Taking Drops From September Levels
The latest data follows a period of heavy profit-taking as Bitcoin attempted to recover above $85,000 earlier in October.
On October 4, short-term holders accounted for approximately 86% of all Bitcoin sold at a profit and sent to exchanges, marking the highest proportion in a year, according to Glassnode’s October 7 report.
Selling activity has since slowed. Glassnode’s October 21 report showed that realized profit-taking had fallen to roughly half the level recorded during the week of Bitcoin’s September price high.
Realized profits measure gains secured when investors sell their Bitcoin. A decline in this figure suggests that fewer profits are being locked in compared with the earlier period.
Selling has also eased among investors who acquired Bitcoin one to two years ago. This group was moving less than one-third of the daily coin volume recorded at its early October peak.
The slowdown could help Bitcoin stabilize if demand returns. However, continued weakness in buying activity could leave the cryptocurrency vulnerable to further declines.
Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance at $85,000–$87,500
Despite the easing selling pressure, Bitcoin faces a major challenge in recovering above $85,000. Glassnode identified the $85,000–$87,500 range as a significant resistance zone in its October 21 analysis. Several market indicators suggest that investors may look to sell if Bitcoin returns to these levels.
Investors who bought Bitcoin six to twelve months ago have an average acquisition price of around $86,700. Meanwhile, sell orders are concentrated between $86,500 and $87,500. These levels could limit a recovery as investors who bought at higher prices look for opportunities to exit their positions.
Bitcoin also faces potential volatility from leveraged positions, with liquidation clusters around $85,000 and $87,000. On the downside, the $80,000 level previously attracted buying interest. The average acquisition prices of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors and corporate treasury holders were concentrated between $80,000 and $81,500.
However, Bitcoin struggled to hold that support and dropped below $80,000 on October 26, reaching an intraday low near $79,332.
Glassnode’s True Market Mean, which estimates the average acquisition price of economically active Bitcoin supply, stood near $77,600 in its October 21 assessment. This level could become important if selling pressure returns.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Raise Concerns About Institutional Demand
Bitcoin ETF flows remain another key factor that could influence the next price move. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $524.8 million on October 21, but the inflows reversed the following day as investors withdrew $635.6 million. Another $137.9 million flowed out on October 23.
The two sessions of withdrawals brought combined Bitcoin ETF outflows to $773.5 million. Although the funds recorded approximately $301.2 million in net inflows over the five-session period, the recent withdrawals highlight the uncertainty surrounding institutional demand.
Sustained ETF inflows could support a Bitcoin price recovery by adding buying pressure. Continued outflows, however, could make it harder for BTC to regain higher price levels.
The contrast between easing profit-taking and weak ETF flows leaves Bitcoin facing two competing forces. Reduced selling by existing holders may help stabilize the market, but a stronger recovery could require renewed demand from institutional and retail investors.
Federal Reserve Decision Could Influence Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin traders are also watching the Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest rate decision for clues about the broader market outlook.
Interest rate expectations can influence demand for risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. Signals pointing toward lower borrowing costs may support investor appetite, while a more restrictive outlook could put additional pressure on cryptocurrency prices.
The September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, scheduled for October 29, is another event investors are monitoring. The report could influence expectations for future monetary policy.
A major Bitcoin options expiry on October 30 could also contribute to short-term price volatility.
For now, Bitcoin’s recovery prospects depend on whether the slowdown in profit-taking translates into greater price stability and whether buyers return at key support levels.
A move back above $85,000 would bring the resistance zone toward $87,500 into focus. If Bitcoin fails to regain support and selling resumes, the market could instead revisit lower levels near the True Market Mean of $77,600.
While easing selling pressure offers a potential positive signal, ETF flows, resistance levels and the Federal Reserve’s decision remain important factors in determining Bitcoin’s next direction.
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